Note: This blog draws in part on my experiences and observations interviewing political figures, writers, and analysts for "The Campbell Conversations" on WRVO. To hear past interviews I refer to in these posts, please go to the show's website. The views expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent Syracuse University, the Campbell Institute, or the WRVO Stations.

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Saturday, November 13, 2010

Updated Math on Maffei - Buerkle

According to the figures in the Post-Standard on Saturday, Ann Marie Buerkle has a 729 vote lead over Dan Maffei, with 6,086 absentee votes received so far and still to be counted in Onondaga County.  That means Maffei would need to win Onondaga County by 12 points in order to make up the difference, leaving out (I think) the military and overseas ballots yet to come in.  In addition, the Maffei campaign has challenged 170 Republican ballots in Monroe County (versus 30 Democratic ballots challenged by Buerkle's campaign), and if most of those votes are validated, then Maffei's required margin of victory is likely to increase.  (For earlier thoughts on this see "Countdown with Dan Maffei" and "Check my Math.")

I think it's fair to say that the math is beginning to tilt a little against him, though he's by no means out of things yet.  But, he won the election day vote in Onondaga County by about 8 percent, so he'd have to outperform his original showing to close the gap.  If the military votes do not break his way, the hill becomes even steeper.  There is also, of course, the question of the re-examination of the ballots already counted.

The question:  Do we have a winner by Thanksgiving?  Update:  Christmas?

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