The numbers reported this morning (Nov. 19) in the Post-Standard are a bit different from what I read yesterday and what I heard last afternoon--specifically, that there are still 3,500 votes in Onondaga County to count. More votes must have come in, or the "emergency" ballots are now part of the number. I won't try to subject the results so far to another statistical calculation of possible outcomes--the big question remains the same: Will Maffei emerge from the Onondaga County count with a large enough cushion to stave off Wayne County and the ballots that are reinstated in Cayuga and Monroe Counties? I still think the answer to that is tilting toward a "no," given the numbers I'm seeing. But that's a guess.
After all that, we're likely to have a recount, as the margin of victory--either way--is probably going to be small enough to prompt a request.
This process has also prompted bigger-picture questions about voting and about the campaigns' behavior (see some earlier posts), and I may return to those in future posts. But right now I'm waiting and watching.
Note: This blog draws in part on my experiences and observations interviewing political figures, writers, and analysts for "The Campbell Conversations" on WRVO. To hear past interviews I refer to in these posts, please go to the show's website. The views expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent Syracuse University, the Campbell Institute, or the WRVO Stations.
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