Note: This blog draws in part on my experiences and observations interviewing political figures, writers, and analysts for "The Campbell Conversations" on WRVO. To hear past interviews I refer to in these posts, please go to the show's website. The views expressed here are solely my own, and do not represent Syracuse University, the Campbell Institute, or the WRVO Stations.


In addition to comments, I'd love to have guest posts. Please send ideas or full-blown posts to me at gdreeher@maxwell.syr.edu.


Wednesday, October 19, 2011

The Strange and Intriguing Political Death Spiral of Ann Marie Buerkle and Dan Maffei

Despite getting increasingly disgusted with some of the political rhetoric I've been hearing and reading (see earlier posts on this), I still love the way that politics creates strange ironies and paradoxes.

Here's one I've been pondering a bit recently:  Given likely redistricting outcomes, Dan Maffei and Ann Marie Buerkle desperately need each other. 

Why is this a paradox?  Because, based on watching the two of them debate and listening to what they have said publicly about each other--and not said--I'm going to go out on a limb and assert that they are not the best of pals.

But in considering possible redistricting schemes here in this area, their best--and perhaps only--chance of winning back or keeping a congressional seat in 2012 is if they can run against each other.

New York must give up two congressional districts, and pundits have identified the Syracuse area as ripe for getting carved up and merged into other existing districts, at the same time that those other districts are re-shaped.  There are several political reasons that this is the likely outcome--the subject for another blog perhaps.

But if this carving up were to happen, Ann Marie Buerkle would most likely be pitted against incumbent Richard Hanna in a Republican primary.  Hard to see her winning that match-up.  Hanna is a well-liked, bona fide moderate Republican.  Moderate Republican still fits this regional area well--just ask Joanie Mahoney for instance. 

The other scenarios have her running against a series of incumbent western Democrats, and given the politics of geography, those would be tough races for her (assuming she got the nomination).  The final more remote possibility is that she would take on Democrat Bill Owens, and in that race she'd have both geography and ideological positioning working against her.  Owens has established himself as a more moderate Democrat.

Dan Maffei has a similar problem, perhaps an even more severe version of it.  It's very hard to imagine him beating any of the aforementioned Democrats in a primary--and in some cases I doubt he'd even be likely to challenge them.  He'd be facing the same tough geographic politics, for one thing. 

In addition, despite the fact that he has run as a self-styled moderate, and also that he has some votes and positions to bolster that claim, I do not think he is solidly perceived to be particularly moderate, and perception is what counts in an election.  That would hurt him in a primary race against Bill Owens, for example.

But where that problem would really hurt him is in a general election against Richard Hanna.  Just like Buerkle, he'd be running against a well-liked bona fide moderate, and again, it's hard to imagine him winning that match-up if he's carrying any liberal baggage.

Of course, things can rapidly change in politics.  But the way it seems to be shaping up, the best hope either of them has is a re-match with the other.

18 comments:

dissertation-writing-help.org said...

There's no permanent friends and enemies in the field of politics, only permanent interests. No wonder why there are lot of stories about these political figures who keeps on mudslinging with each other. That's so disgusting at it's highest form!!

Anonymous said...

Noting that elections were about choices for the voters, I asked them, when it comes to education policy, what the most important research paper service difference was between them and their opponents.

promptessay.com said...

The best lighting for smart people. Visit our site and ensure the adequacy of price .
Informative and interesting which we share with you so i think so it is very useful and knowledgeable. I would like to thank you for the efforts. I am tiring the same best work from me in the future as well. I'll use this information to provide research paper help

best said...

I really had a great time with your post! I am looking forward to read more blog post regarding this!

friv 3 said...

What's even more comfortable when you are entertaining after a day of hard work.

yola said...

"There's no permanent friends and enemies in the field of politics, only permanent interests. No wonder why there are lot of stories about these political figures who keeps on mudslinging with each other. That's so disgusting at it's highest form!!" I don't know if I agree with this. Thanks for the input. we buy junk cars orlando

kizi said...

Ukash bozdurma and my name is ukash by bozdurma and kart big tit.

Unknown said...

You have great blogging skills, i have learnt many things from you
Aiden Pearce Coat

jogos do friv said...

I am looking forward to read more blog post regarding this!
---
play game jogos do friv online free | jogo do friv | jogos friv

kids games online said...

Thanks for sharing this quality information with us. I really enjoyed reading.
---
games for kids
kids games
kid games

Unknown said...

Great post,Thanks for providing us this great knowledge,Keep it up.
A good blog.
Signature:
descargar facebook
descargar facebook apk
descargar facebook gratis
descarga facebook

Unknown said...

obat wasir obat sipilis raja singa obat kencing nanah atau gonore penyebab penis keluar cairan nanah penyebab penis keluar cairan nanah obat penis keluar cairan nanah mengapa kencing perih dan keluar cairan nanah mengapa kencing perih dan keluar cairan nanah cara mengobati penis keluar cairan nanah cara mengobati penis keluar cairan nanah

Unknown said...

jual Obat sipilis jual obat wasir Jual Obat Kencing Nanah obat wasir herbal obat kutil kelamin ampuh obat kutil kelamin Jual Obat Kutil Kelamin

coolmath4kids said...

I find it hard to understand because everything so entrar facebook , facebook entrar a mi cuenta , coolmathgames , facebook entrar perfil , facebook entrar mi cuenta , coolmath4kids

Unknown said...

Obat kencing Nanah De Nature Obat Herbal obat Kutil Kelaminobat kemaluan keluar nanah obat cairan nanah keluar dari alat kelamin obat alat kelamin keluar nanah obat wasir herbal obat kutil kelamin ampuh obat ambeien resep dokter pengobatan jenis kutil kelamin

Unknown said...

friv 2015

h1z1 maps said...

Time passes quickly and is more volatile this year h1z1 maps , gta 5 cheats ps4 , cities skylines mods , h1z1 maps , gta 5 cheats ps4 , cities skylines mods

Unknown said...

Thanks for your post. I admire your work, although you're so busy, you still spend time and share us these information :)
happy wheels | car games | racing games | online games